Maine’s Senate race is a tie, and voters there are refusing to let national politics decide it. A new CBS News/YouGov poll finds that voters are split between state-level issues and national ones, with Republican Susan Collins drawing support from those focused on state matters and Democrat Troy Jackson pulling voters who oppose Trump and his policies.
The race remains deadlocked in a state that leans Democratic overall. Collins is holding on by appealing to voters who say they care more about local issues than national ones. She also holds an edge on who would bring more federal funds back to Maine.
Collins Draws State Voters
Collins is doing particularly well among voters who have voted for her multiple times in the past, despite what the poll calls an “anti-incumbent” year. She also holds an edge on who would bring more federal funds back to Maine.
Jackson faces a harder road. One in five voters who disapprove of Trump choose Collins, a rate higher than what Republican congressional candidates get nationally. That number shows how much Collins has managed to separate herself from the national GOP brand.
Jackson’s Ballot Position
Jackson’s own party may be working against him. Four in 10 Democrats and most independents wish someone else were the Democratic nominee. He also trails the Democrats’ gubernatorial nominee, Hannah Pingree, whose lead in the governor’s race tracks closer to the state’s overall partisan lean. Kamala Harris won the state.
Pingree draws some of the voters who are splitting their tickets to back Collins. That dynamic means Jackson is competing for Democrats who might otherwise support his party’s other candidates.
The Race Is Still Open
A sizable 10% of voters say they could still change their minds, underscoring that the race could break either way. Even when voters think Jackson’s policies would make them financially better off, Collins still gets almost one in five of those voters.
Trump’s policies have hurt the Maine economy, according to voters who answered that question. Jackson wins most of those who hold that view. But long-time service isn’t entirely working against Collins: she does especially well among voters who say they’ve voted for her multiple times in the past.
The Poll’s Numbers
- Sample size: 1,114 registered voters in Maine
- Conducted: September 23–October 1, 2026
- Weighting: gender, age, race and education based on U.S. Census data, plus 2024 presidential vote
- Margin of error: ± 4.7 points for registered voters
Who Supports Each Candidate
Collins draws voters who care more about state issues than national ones. She also holds an edge on federal funding. Jackson pulls voters who think Collins is too much in agreement with Trump, those opposed to tariffs, those wanting national Democrats to control the Senate, and those prioritizing change over experience.
What This Means
The poll shows a tight race where both candidates are winning different versions of the same argument. Collins is running on her record and her ability to deliver federal dollars. Jackson’s support comes from voters who think Collins is too aligned with Trump, along with those opposed to tariffs and those prioritizing change over experience.
The undecided voters are the key. With 10% still open to persuasion, the race is still fluid.
The Bottom Line
Maine’s Senate race is a reminder that state politics often move at their own pace. Collins is holding her ground by focusing on state issues, and Jackson is fighting back by tying Collins to the national Republican brand. The polls show a contest where each candidate is winning a different group of voters.
Source material: “CBS News poll finds voters split on state v. national focus in Maine Senate race,” CBS News.
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