New research says England will need at least seven months of above-average rain to end the drought by spring 2027. The study details the size of the gap between what water supplies currently hold and what they should contain. Rivers, reservoirs and groundwater all came through a very dry spring and summer with less than expected.
The EA estimates that roughly 120% of average rainfall must fall between now and April before all regions are free from drought. Under the most probable forecast, which points toward a wetter autumn than usual according to the latest Met Office projections, Devon and Cornwall and East Anglia might still remain in drought at the beginning of spring 2027.
The Drought Deficit
The Environment Agency describes severe drought as a state where water shortages bring about wide-ranging, enduring harm to the natural world, agriculture, towns and cities, and trade, with a real risk of a serious threat to public water supplies. England has not faced such a drought since 1976.
England has received some recent rain, which has offered some easing, though the water beneath the earth remains scarce. Reservoir storage across the nation sat at just under 57% last week, roughly a fifth lower than what is typically seen at this season.
“The drought situation remains very serious, and we cannot underestimate the challenge ahead over the coming months.”
What Philip Duffy Said
Philip Duffy, the person running EA, spoke plainly about the situation. He said that several weeks of rain will not be enough to fix what happened during the season before, which was very dry.
That is what he said, adding: “We still need everyone to use a little less water to speed up the drought recovery.”
The Regional Picture
There is no single pattern for the nation’s water situation. Scotland is still dealing with months of dry conditions around its east coast, despite recent rain, and that has not fully undone the damage done by those months. Four regions are now experiencing serious water shortages, and all of Wales continues to be under a drought warning.
When river flows stay beneath the acknowledged low flow threshold for a run of 30 days, that marks significant water scarcity.
| Region | Status |
|---|---|
| England | Almost three-quarters in drought |
| Devon and Cornwall | Could remain in drought |
| East Anglia | Could remain in drought |
| Scotland | Four areas at significant water scarcity |
| Wales | Drought status |
The Weather Forecast
This week’s short-range forecast includes some rain, though it will not likely deliver enough moisture to relieve the dry conditions that currently cover much of the UK.
Rain will begin falling over south-eastern parts of England on Thursday morning, lingering near the Kent coast before it moves away. Elsewhere, sun will break through with scattered showers developing, particularly across Scotland, Northern Ireland and northern England.
A low-pressure system sitting to the north of Scotland is causing windy weather across the country. On Friday, scattered rain moves in from the west. Then, on Saturday, showers develop in the north-west before spreading into the south. By Sunday, the rain and showers ease up, giving way to largely dry and settled conditions that hold through the early part of next week.
The Met Office’s forecast calls for drier weather in the second half of September, with the southern part of the country expected to get the least amount of rain.
The Climate Context
One influence on the outlook comes from the current El Niño, which has already reached near-record levels. Past El Niño events have brought warmer, wetter and stormier conditions to the UK during late autumn and early winter.
Warmer conditions may aid drought recovery, yet spells of intense precipitation carry their own hazard, namely the threat of flooding.
According to the Environment Agency, floodwater is hard to store for public water supply. It comes fast, and it carries large amounts of sediment and nitrates that run off the land into it.
The Odds on Drought
Some forecasts point to a roughly one-in-four probability that about half of England will remain in drought next spring. At the moment, the odds of a severe drought developing over the coming months sit at roughly a 1% chance.
The margin between recovery and disaster is narrow, which is why the odds matter so much. The most probable outcome is a wetter-than-average autumn, yet the regions that matter most — Devon, Cornwall and East Anglia — might not receive enough of it.
What Comes Next
The effort to keep England from running short on water carries on. The outlook for the later part of September calls for drier weather in the south, where the lack of rain has hit hardest.
The EA wants people to cut back on their water use, and it has set a target of seven months of above-average rain. The countdown has already begun.
There is little comfort to be found beyond the figures themselves. The document merely sets out the size of the issue and the requirements for addressing it. Seven months of continuous rainfall would be required to end the drought, according to research. This is the actual state of affairs in England.
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