The Philadelphia 76ers are about to step right into a numbers problem. On paper, putting Jaylen Brown alongside a group with Joel Embiid, Tyrese Maxey, and LeBron James makes for an attractive lineup. The trouble is that the team already has too many players who demand the ball, which points toward a full breakdown being very possible.
The 2018 Celtics Warning
This film has already passed me by once, and it carries all the hallmarks of a disaster waiting to unfold. The comparison rests on the 2018 Boston Celtics, who, according to Hardwood Houdini, believed they were a lock to succeed after acquiring stars like Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward.
As the source puts it, “The Celtics just came within a game of the NBA Finals and are going to get Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward back? What could go wrong?” Everything went wrong.
The Celtics fell short, and every component of their roster was present, yet the arrangement between them failed to hold together. Now the Sixers find themselves facing an identical predicament, with four players who all demand possession of the ball simultaneously.
The Numbers Do Not Add Up
There is no way to fit more than 100% of the ball into play. Last season’s usage rates for these four players show the problem clearly.
According to Hardwood Houdini, the individual usage rates were:
- Jaylen Brown: 36.2
- Joel Embiid: 33.5
- Tyrese Maxey: 29.4
- LeBron James: 27.2
The figure amounts to 126.3, which is a substantial excess. Adding VJ Edgecombe at a 20.1 pace makes the numbers even harder to work with. There simply aren’t enough possessions to accommodate everyone’s demands.
There is no shortage of skill on this team. The issue lies in the absence of a true “connector” figure. A connector is the player who moves the ball, who spots the open teammate, who does not seek the spotlight. The Sixers lack such a presence entirely.
The Same Trap In Philly
The Philadelphia Sixers face the identical trap. Embiid, Maxey, and LeBron are all players who require the ball to perform at a high level. None of them are role players; each is accustomed to being the focal point of the offense. The entire system falls apart if they cannot play without the ball.
The 76ers have all the pieces for a special team, but they might just end up with a very expensive trainwreck. The roster is a math problem with no solution, and the history of the 2018 Celtics shows what happens when a roster overloads itself with dominant personalities.
The Possessions Ceiling
A game can hold only so many possessions, and no team can ever have more than 100% of the ball in play at once. The Sixers are trying to get 126.3% out of a single clock, which will not last.
Adding VJ Edgecombe at a 20.1 usage rate makes the numbers harder to manage, because there simply aren’t enough possessions to go around for everyone on the roster.
What Happens Next
The Philadelphia 76ers face a decision: let one of their stars take a back seat, or keep all four on the court at once. The track record of the 2018 Boston Celtics offers reason for doubt about the second path. That franchise thought it was set up for success, with additions like Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward. Instead, things fell apart.
Philadelphia has every piece of talent imaginable. The roster boasts stars and depth alike. Still, a flaw exists that no amount of ability can remedy. The list of players is too long, and the numbers show it will fall apart.
The Hard Numbers
- Jaylen Brown: 36.2 usage rate
- Joel Embiid: 33.5 usage rate
- Tyrese Maxey: 29.4 usage rate
- LeBron James: 27.2 usage rate
- Total of four stars: 126.3
- VJ Edgecombe: 20.1 usage rate
A Comparison Of Overloaded Rosters
| Team | Stars Added | Usage Rate Total | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 Celtics | Kyrie Irving, Gordon Hayward | N/A | Collapse |
A star already led the Celtics before Irving and Hayward joined the roster. The Sixers, for their part, are adding Brown to a team that already boasts three stars. Both franchises believed these acquisitions would succeed. Neither franchise was correct.
History offers the Sixers a lesson they can study before it actually happens. They can recognize the danger ahead of time. The problem is that spotting the trouble and escaping it are not the same thing.
The group of players forms an equation that could easily break apart. Philadelphia has the ability to put the pieces together correctly. Whether they choose to use that ability is uncertain.
Source material: “The Sixers Roster Is A Math Problem Waiting To Explode,” Yahoo Sports.
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