The Social Security trust fund is running out of reserves, and the people who will have to fix it are not talking about it on the campaign trail. The program’s board of trustees projects that in six years, if Congress does nothing, payments to beneficiaries will be reduced by nearly a quarter. That would devastate seniors who rely on those checks, and the people running for office seem largely uninterested in the problem.
The shortfall is not a secret. Payments are expected to be 22% lower starting at the end of 2032 if Congress does not act. But the election-year silence is notable. Candidates are not weighing in on the trade-offs that fixing Social Security will require, and experts say that means voters are left in the dark.
The Numbers Behind The Shortfall
The projection comes from the Social Security Trustees Report, which is the official accounting for the program. The fund’s reserves are projected to run out in six years.
The trustees expect that gap to grow over time. Each year Congress fails to act, the problem gets larger, which increases the incentives for lawmakers to keep kicking the can down the road.
Why Congress Keeps Kicking The Can Down The Road
Andrew Biggs, with the American Enterprise Institute, a right-leaning think tank in Washington, says the biggest hurdle is that Congress has no deadline. There is no requirement that lawmakers act at any given time. They can always choose to wait.
Each year they fail to act, the problem grows. As the problem grows, the incentives to act diminish. That creates a cycle: the worse the problem gets, the less Congress wants to talk about it.
Biggs puts it plainly. “There’s no requirement that Congress act at any given time,” he says. “They can always choose to kick the can down the road.”
What A Fix Would Actually Cost
Fixing Social Security will likely involve two things: cutting benefits for some Americans or raising taxes on higher earners. Both options come with political blowback.
Bill Sweeney with the AARP says the public is largely unaware of the scale of the problem. “I’m not super confident that they’re going to clear the decks and focus on something that’s six years away,” he says. “It’s not very long for regular folks, but for Congress, it can be almost a lifetime.”
Sweeney points out that some of the people who will be making those decisions are currently running for office, particularly candidates running for six-year terms. “The people who we elect to the United States Senate in November are almost certainly going to be the ones in the Senate in 2032 deciding what to do with people’s Social Security,” he says. “And the fact that it’s not coming up very often in the debates or in the questions, I think, is a serious failing.”
Voters Don’t Understand What’s Happening
Rich Thau with Engagious has been moderating focus groups with swing voters for the past three months. He has asked about Social Security directly, and what he found is that voters understand very little. Many conflate what’s happening now with their long-running fears that Social Security will not be there for them when they retire.
Margaret, from Pennsylvania, took part in the focus groups on the condition her last name would not be used. She expressed worry about herself and her son. “‘Cause I’m worried not only for myself, but for my son. Is there going to be anything there to help myself or, as I said, my son when it comes time for retirement?” she asked.
Thau says both parties need to do a better job of educating the public about what actually is happening. “Because this isn’t the kind of policy you can sneak past voters,” he says. “In order to fix the program, someone has to pay. And you can’t cut benefits without people noticing. You can’t increase FICA taxes without people noticing. So if there isn’t buy-in and an acceptance of the looming crisis in Social Security, it’s impossible to fix this.”
What Fixes Could Look Like
The two main paths to fixing the system are:
- Cutting benefits for some Americans.
- Raising taxes on higher earners.
Either path requires voters to accept the trade-off. Neither path can be hidden from them.
The Political Math On The Campaign Trail
The Senate seats being contested this year are the ones who will still be serving in 2032, the year the trust fund is projected to run out.
That means the people currently running for Senate are the ones who will be making the decisions about Social Security in the decade ahead. Yet the issue barely surfaces in debates or on the stump.
What The Public Needs To Know
The public needs to know that the trust fund is running out, that the shortfall is real, and that the choices are hard. The trustees’ report is the official document, and it says clearly that payments will be 22% lower starting at the end of 2032 if Congress does nothing.
The public also needs to know that lawmakers have a choice. They can act now and make the problem worse, or they can wait, and the problem gets bigger.
The 2032 deadline is fixed. The question is whether lawmakers will face the problem before it arrives or let it arrive and deal with the fallout afterward.
The public deserves a conversation about Social Security before the trust fund runs out. The people who will be making the decisions are on the ballot this year, and they should be answering questions about the shortfall.