El Niño is back, and this time it’s being called “Super El Niño” and even “Godzilla El Niño.” Federal forecasters say this year’s event could be the strongest on record, with the planet seeing more than 2 degrees Celsius of warming in a key ocean region off South America. The last strong ones came in 1982-83, 1997-98 and 2015-16.
What El Niño Actually Is
El Niño happens every two to seven years when the eastern Pacific Ocean warms up around the equator. That warm water releases massive heat, moving warmth from the ocean to the atmosphere. The result shifts weather patterns worldwide.
The opposite phase is La Niña, marked by cooler water in the tropical Pacific. Together, these two events drive some of the biggest weather swings the planet sees.
Daniel Vimont, a professor of atmospheric and oceanic sciences at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, puts it simply: “El Niño is the same thing, except it’s an enormous rock in our entire Earth’s system, and we feel the response.”
How Strong This One Is
Technically, NOAA forecasters put this year’s El Niño in the “very strong” category. It is already the strongest ever measured for this time of year, and it is expected to last through early 2027.
The record-setting warmth comes as the planet is already warmer than usual. Emissions from burning fossil fuels trap more heat in the atmosphere, and El Niño adds to that baseline.
Global Impacts
All that extra heat raises temperatures globally. El Niño years tend to be the hottest on record, and this year may get close to taking the top spot. Temperature records are very likely to fall in 2027.
Rainfall shifts too. Some parts of the world get wetter, raising the chances of destructive flooding. Others get drier, making drought worse. Both can be catastrophic for farming.
The United Nations World Food Programme estimates that El Niño could push at least 49 million more people into acute food insecurity by the end of 2027.
What the U.S. Gets
In the southern U.S., El Niño tends to bring more intense rainfall because the jet stream shifts to the south. That raises flood risks along rivers and in cities. The Southwest, though, could benefit from more rain, which could ease drought and refill underground water sources.
Martin Hoerling, a meteorologist and adjunct lecturer at the University of Colorado Boulder, says strong El Niños like this one can speed recovery of water supplies. “A big El Niño, especially like the one we’re having, can really get you into recovery mode that otherwise might have taken you years.”
The northern half of the country gets warmer and drier, which could worsen the current drought in the Intermountain West. Some states, like California, see mixed effects. The state flooded in 1997-98 but was drier in 2015-16. Experts say this El Niño is so strong, California is more likely to see extreme rain.
El Niños can also mean fewer hurricanes in the Atlantic, since storms find it harder to form. In the Pacific, they can become more frequent, fueled by warmer water. Hurricanes have already intensified rapidly this year in the Pacific, and Hawaii has had close calls with several that brought destructive rain and wind.
Blame El Niño or Climate Change?
El Niño loads the dice for certain weather responses, but it does not guarantee them. There is natural year-to-year variation, and some regions may see different outcomes than the models predict.
Climate change is also at play. The most intense storms are already producing more rainfall in most of the U.S., since a warmer atmosphere holds more water vapor. Heat waves and droughts are getting more intense due to rising temperatures.
This winter, El Niño and climate change will both shape the weather. El Niño will fade eventually. Climate change will keep going.
| Event | Last Occurred |
|---|---|
| Strong El Niño | 2015-16 |
| Very strong El Niño | 1997-98, 1982-83 |
- El Niño peaks in November and December
- NOAA expects the event through early 2027
- 49 million more people at risk of food insecurity by end of 2027
The scale of this event is hard to miss.
Source material: “Super El Niño is here. What's so super about it?,” NPR.
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