Ahead of a busy weekend at ParisLongchamp and Ascot, the Weekend Winners team of Declan Rix, Sam Boswell and Kate Tracey gathered together once more. They devoted an entire segment to a single race, with each member supporting a different runner. Each made their own case without much reference to the others. That’s the story of the episode on the Challenge Cup, and it’s worth relating in full, since it illustrates how a field of 18 runners splits into three separate debates.
After putting their collective support behind Daryz for the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, the panel turned its attention to Ascot’s Challenge Cup. A full field of 18 runners have assembled for the heritage handicap contest over seven furlongs. Thunder Call is the early market favourite for the William Haggas team. Moonfall is in opposition for the Billy Loughnane and George Boughey combination, alongside Royal Ascot winner Mezcala.
Saturday brings a live broadcast of the race on Sky Sports Racing, starting at 3.35pm. The full episode can also be viewed on the At The Races YouTube channel.
Thunder Call’s Case
Sam Boswell respected Thunder Call’s chances but didn’t want to play at the price, so he took a swing elsewhere.
“I thought Thunder Call was mightily short at 11/4,” Boswell said, “I respect his chances but didn’t want to playing [at the price]. I thought I’d take a bit of a swing here.”
Boswell’s swing landed on Richard Spencer’s horses. He pointed to two runners in the race — Hawksbill and Two Tribes — and noted that Spencer has gone through the season and done pretty well in these types of races. Spencer has gone a bit quiet recently, but he’s got two here, and Boswell was most interested in Two Tribes.
“He’s kicking around the 20/1 mark but this horse’s form at Ascot is there for all to see,” Boswell said. “He was second in the International off one pound lower and that is the piece of form that stands out for me. He’s just a really good horse and he’s got Toby Moore booked, who will take a handy seven off – which will be really key to his chances.”
Boswell suggested it would be best to say little about Ayr. In the International, Spencer’s horse finished behind Extremely Zain, who came out and won again at York in good style.
“It could be a case of a race too many for him but I thought Toby Moore’s booking was eye-catching and I’d hope he can run into the places,” Boswell concluded.
Mezcala’s Track Record
George Bass rides a horse with recent good form, and Declan Rix backs that combination by putting his money behind it.
“It’s “once more unto the breach dear friends” with Mezcala,” Rix said. “I just hope that Port Master runs because I don’t see loads of pace in the race and it could get a little bit messy.”
Rix noted that Ascot’s rail is off the straight track to keep it fresh for Champions Day at this meeting, even though they do that and it’s a smaller field than usual, they can split in two. So the rail position matters.
“If he comes back to this form from the Buckingham Palace Stakes he’s got a wonderful chance,” Rix argued. “The race set up nicely for him down the rail, he got plenty of cover and he did all of his best work late. He maybe got a little bit lucky that the runner-up was idling a touch but if he comes back to this form, he’s going to go close.”
Mezcala’s run at the Leger meeting was noted for being particularly strong given the conditions, according to Rix. He concluded by stating that George Bass needs to get this guy covered up.
Kate’s Backing
Mezcala has a recent run at Doncaster behind him, and his current rating gives Kate Tracey good reason to keep believing in him.
“That Doncaster run last time – I thought it was fair enough,” Tracey said. “Low draws came to the fore that day and he was in 14 with the running style also not helping. I did also feel that he was perhaps found wanting off that mark of 98 and he’s been generously given 1lb back now!”
Mezcala remains ahead of the mark he set when winning at Royal Ascot, but Tracey believes he’s well placed at 15/2, returning to this track and trip with George Bass aboard once again.
The Field As It Stands
Here’s how the key runners break down, with the field full from start to finish.
| Runner | Trainer |
|---|---|
| Thunder Call | William Haggas |
| Mezcala | Billy Loughnane / George Boughey |
| Hawksbill | Richard Spencer |
| Two Tribes | Richard Spencer |
| Moonfall | Billy Loughnane / George Boughey |
The numbers below represent sample odds taken from the episode, meant to give a sense of what the betting looks like rather than exact figures. The list of candidates running is long and competitive.
What To Make Of It
Handicaps are hard to call, and this episode serves as a reminder of that fact. With a field of 18, the pace is likely to be difficult to control, and the rail position at Ascot becomes especially important because the track splits in two.
Port Master’s absence would change the complexion of the race, as Rix noted. Mezcala’s rail position at the Buckingham Palace Stakes worked in his favour.
Each expert made their case, and not one of them agreed with another. As Boswell pointed out, that is precisely what makes the Challenge Cup live up to its name.
Saturday’s event airs live on Sky Sports Racing at 3.35pm.
Source material: “Mezcala fancied to scoop Challenge Cup prize,” Sky Sports.
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