Bitcoin is down just 1.5% in September, a historically weak month, and remains on track for its first quarterly gain in a year. That resilience comes despite rising rates, surging oil and a stronger dollar.
After the Clarity Act stalled in the Senate and the Federal Reserve delivered its first rate hike in more than three years, the cryptocurrency remained close to $75,000. The Bank of Japan followed suit by raising rates, though the Bank of England kept its own steady. The SEC provided a brighter spot with its tokenisation exemption.
What September brought
In August, Bitcoin rallied 25%, touching around $81,000. The consensus was that the cryptocurrency would give back a good portion of those gains. Instead, September has seen an average decline of roughly 3%, with the slide beginning on 2013.
Bitcoin has lost just 1.5% so far this month. With roughly two weeks left, it remains up about 32% for the quarter, which would mark its first positive quarterly result since the third quarter of 2025.
Bitcoin is currently trading at $78,000, approximately where it stood before Wednesday’s Federal Reserve rate hike, an event widely viewed as a negative force for crypto and other risk assets.
That’s not all. This week has provided plenty of reasons for the market to fall, but it hasn’t.
The Clarity Act failure
The Clarity Act was unable to gather the necessary 60 votes on Tuesday, drawing only 49 supporters. Bitcoin dipped below $74,887 on Tuesday before steadying itself rapidly.
Mitchell Askew, head of Blockware Intelligence at Blockware, said the market’s response was notable. “What stands out to me is that Bitcoin has hardly budged at all in response to two objectively bad pieces of news. A 25-basis-point hike and the CLARITY Act failing to pass are both headlines that, in a different market environment, would have sent price meaningfully lower. Instead, we got basically nothing,” he said in an email.
Askew explained that when bad news stops affecting the price, it’s a sign of seller exhaustion. “Anybody who was going to sell bitcoin based on events like these has already sold. They no longer have coins to sell. That is an incredibly positive sign for the medium to long term, and it is exactly what you tend to see in the later stages of a bottoming process,” he noted.
Energy and currency pressures
The strain on energy markets intensified at the start of the week, with West Texas Intermediate crude climbing past $106 a barrel on Tuesday, touching a five-month high amid ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
A gauge of the dollar’s value relative to a basket of major foreign currencies has climbed above 100, reaching its highest point in over a month. When the dollar strengthens for an extended period, it tends to tighten financial conditions across global markets, which can put downward pressure on assets viewed as risky, such as bitcoin. The Bank of Japan also raised its benchmark borrowing rate to a 31-year high.
Why bitcoin held up
Sygnum Bank provided a reason why bitcoin has held up despite the forces working against it. Higher interest rates and rising bond yields do not always push prices down.
“It’s not a one-way street. You see yields rising, and at the same time Bitcoin and gold outperforming. If rising rates are an indication of debasement risk and sovereign counterparty risk, then for store of value assets that is actually a positive driver,” Fabian Dori, chief investment officer at Sygnum, said in an email.
“I do not fully agree that rates need to fall in order for digital assets to outperform.”
Dori argues that higher interest rates can be a sign that fiat money is losing strength, which makes owning bitcoin more appealing.
What comes next
For bitcoin, the takeaway is its resilience, above $77,000, despite legislative setbacks, rising oil prices, tighter monetary policy and a stronger dollar. In other words, the path of least resistance appears to be higher.
“If the market has been this resilient when the news flow has been challenging, even a modest improvement in macro, geopolitical or regulatory conditions could provide the catalyst for the next major leg higher,” Joel Kruger, Markets Strategist at LMAX Group, said.
The SEC tokenisation exemption
After the Senate’s rejection of the Clarity Act, the regulatory policy outlook has continued to improve, and the crypto industry got another piece of good news on Thursday. That is when the Securities and Exchange Commission revealed its long-awaited innovation exemption for tokenized securities venues.
Kruger pointed out that “The failure to advance the legislation delays a statutory framework, but it does not prevent the SEC and CFTC from continuing to provide guidance under existing authority, leaving an important regulatory pathway open,”.
Rate hike fears
Concerns exist over the prospect of additional Fed rate hikes and higher Treasury yields. Market pricing now points toward three further quarter-point increases by April 2027, pushing the federal funds rate up to 4.50%–4.75%.
But as Dori said, this doesn’t necessarily pose a risk.
“I do not fully agree that rates need to fall in order for digital assets to outperform,” he stressed.
Seasonal caution
Bulls face a single worry: the seasonal pattern provides almost no reassurance as next week approaches.
According to Coinglass, Bitcoin has historically fallen an average of 2.5% in the year’s 38th week, with gains recorded on just four occasions.
There is no assurance that how an asset has performed before will determine how it performs next. The seasonal pattern that has hurt returns earlier in the year actually works in favor of investors when the calendar moves into the fourth quarter. According to data from CoinDesk, Bitcoin typically rises 77% during Q4.
| Week | Average change | Gain recorded |
|---|---|---|
| Year’s 38th week | -2.5% | 4 occasions |
| Q4 | +77% | — |
The bottom line
The Clarity Act failed and the Fed raised rates in September, yet Bitcoin barely budged. That stability points to sellers having exhausted their supply of coins to sell.
A smoother course seems to lie above. Even a small easing in macroeconomic, geopolitical, or regulatory circumstances might send bitcoin on its way toward its next significant rise.
It remains to be seen if the market can sustain its current pace through the remainder of the year.
Source material: “Bitcoin weathers September storm as rate hikes and Clarity act setback test bulls,” CoinDesk.
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