The people who buy and sell Bitcoin closest to its daily price now hold at least some profit, and they have done so for 30 straight days. That is the longest such stretch since the market peaked, according to onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant.
Since Aug. 16, a portion of Bitcoin’s short-term holder (STH) group has sat above break-even territory. These STH investors are defined by wallets that hold an unspent transaction output (UTXO) for under six months. That makes them newer buyers who react more quickly to short-term price swings and are more likely to add or cut their holdings compared with longer-serving Bitcoin owners.
CryptoQuant is tracking a change worth watching. As of Tuesday, STH coins held in profit total $168.2 billion since Aug. 16, with $102.6 billion sitting below acquisition price. What stands out is not the size of the difference between profit and loss, but how long it has lasted: STHs have kept at least some profit for 30 straight days.
What STH Profitability Actually Means
Among STH holders, there is a division when it comes to how their current positions fare. Some STH coins sit above their original purchase price, while others remain below it. What matters most is that at least some STH coins have been trading above their acquisition price for a month, rather than the precise ratio between the two groups.
CryptoQuant frames the milestone in historical context. “This is the first time STH have sat in profit territory for a sustained stretch since the market top,” the firm wrote in an accompanying blog post. “The last time was in January, but that episode didn’t last more than a week. In May, losses held by STH remained dominant.”
Throughout Bitcoin price cycles, BTC market recoveries have been marked by growing stretches of STH profitability. This pattern was also noted at the close of Bitcoin’s 2022 bear market. As a result, CryptoQuant considers such lengthened profitable periods a necessary condition for a sustained BTC price rise to follow.
“The bear market trend only truly reverses once profits settle in for good STH and then push them to hold their positions and ride the upside,” it added.
The Cost Basis Behind the Numbers
CryptoQuant data indicates that the present wave of STH profitability comes from wallets that have held for one to three months. That group’s realized price — the cost basis — stands at $63,372. In contrast, the more established portion of the STH base — wallets with holdings aged between three and six months — now carries a cost basis of $73,190.
The distance between the highest price paid and the current market value matters greatly here. It demonstrates that newer buyers are entering at lower prices than those who came before them, which follows the usual pattern of a recovery: the individuals who purchased at the peak are still under water, while the people buying now are the ones turning a profit.
Why STHs Matter More Than the Ratio
It matters little how much profit compares to loss when STHs have kept at least some profit for 30 straight days. CryptoQuant’s focus on how long profits last rather than how much they amount to serves as a useful reminder: the strength of a market depends less on who is winning or losing right now and more on whether the winners are holding their gains long enough to steady the recovery.
A brief spell of STH profitability ran from late January through early February, lasting just a week. Since then, losses have generally reigned over the May period. The present 30-day streak marks the first extended stretch of STHs sitting above water since the market peaked.
How This Compares to Other Signals
A similar period of aggregate profitability is currently being observed across the Bitcoin investor base, with BTC/USD still holding onto the majority of its 25% August upside.
On Aug. 19, Cointelegraph reported that the spent output profit ratio (SOPR) crossed its breakeven level of 1. The metric gauges net gains or losses across all investors, and it has barely stayed above that threshold since then. Just last week, onchain analytics platform Checkonchain claimed that profitability for small traders specifically was “starting to look more like those early bull-market recoveries.”.
| Signal | What It Tracks | Current Status |
|---|---|---|
| STH Profitability | Profit held by wallets <6 months | 30-day profit streak since Aug. 16 |
| SOPR | Net profits/losses across all investors | Above breakeven since Aug. 19 |
| STH Cost Basis | Realized price of STH cohorts | One-three months: $63,372; Three-six months: $73,190 |
Both indicators are trending upwards together. For 30 days, STHs show a profit, while SOPR sits above breakeven, and Checkonchain identifies early-bull-market patterns forming.
The Bull Case Rests on the Duration
What matters about the STH profit streak is its persistence, not its size. One day of profit is random noise. Thirty days of profit shows a real trend. That the STHs have kept at least some profit for a month is the meaningful data, not the precise balance between gain and loss.
The 30-day run is the first sustained stretch of STH profitability since the market top. That matters more than the exact balance between profit and loss.
CryptoQuant’s framing of the bear-market reversal is direct: profits have to settle in for good STH before the long-term uptrend can return. The firm’s blog post argues that the bear market trend only truly reverses once profits settle in for good STH and then push them to hold their positions and ride the upside.
Since the market peak, the 30-day run marks the first extended period where STH holders have been making money again. CryptoQuant views it as a necessary step before a long-term BTC price uptrend can return during this cycle. A bear market trend only fully turns around when profits become established for STH investors, who then keep holding their positions and ride the upside.
The formula has proven reliable before, and it remains so today. Shareholders who hold their positions have finally stopped suffering losses.
The Pattern’s Track Record
Historical data supports CryptoQuant’s account. Across BTC price cycles, Bitcoin recoveries have featured growing stretches of sustained profitability for holders who bought early. The 2022 bear market followed the same pattern as it drew to a close.
The company’s reasoning depends on the notion that STHs serve as an early signal of how the wider market is performing. Once these traders stop posting losses, they tend to be more willing to keep their positions open and benefit from any upward movement that follows.
What This Means for Traders
Traders following the market will find the STH profit streak a clear sign of shifting momentum. This streak spans 30 days, making it the longest sustained period of STH profitability since the market reached its peak, following a stretch when losses were the norm.
The sign to look for in STHs is a sustained period of profit, not merely the balance between profit and loss at any given moment. One day of profit can be random chance. Thirty days of profit shows a consistent trend.
Since the market peak, no single period has delivered STH profitability until now. The 30-day run marks that first extended stretch, and its significance rests on what it represents rather than the precise mix of gains and losses within it.
The STHs have stopped losing money.
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