Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins has spent the past four years campaigning in some of Alaska’s most remote corners. The Democratic candidate for governor has traveled the Yukon River in a 24-ft Alweld skiff, passing through 11 villages on a route that took four days and covered 450 miles (725km). Now, the polls suggest his long game is paying off.
Two years after Donald Trump carried Alaska by 13 points, his approval rating there has collapsed by a net 21- to 22-point swing, among the steepest drops in any reliably Republican state he won. That collapse has created an opening, and Kreiss-Tomkins appears to be the Democrat best positioned to fill it.
The Primary Test
In August, Kreiss-Tomkins came in first ahead of his Democratic and Republican rivals in the state’s nonpartisan primary. Alaska uses a ranked-choice voting system adopted by voters in 2020, under which the top four candidates from an open primary advance to the general election.
The result is a field that looks nothing like a traditional partisan matchup. The top three Republican finishers — Bernadette Wilson, Dave Bronson and Treg Taylor — now face Kreiss-Tomkins in November.
The primary also exposed a deep split among the Republican candidates. Larry Persily, who has watched Alaska politics since the 1970s, said: “JKT is the clear frontrunner for governor not because of anything Trump did, but because he’s running a good campaign… He’s energized a lot of young people. His Republican opponents are just a sorry lot. The Republicans just put up a bunch of political losers.”
The Governor’s Record
Mike Dunleavy, the outgoing Republican governor, leaves office deeply unpopular. He promised to increase the oil-dividend payout, a promise he failed to keep.
Every eligible Alaskan received $1,000 in 2026, plus an additional $200 energy relief payment. The failure to deliver on the dividend pledge has become a central issue in the governor’s race.
Dunleavy’s unpopularity has reshaped the political landscape. A recent bipartisan AARP poll found Kreiss-Tomkins winning 40% of first-choice preferences, compared with a combined 41% for his three Republican opponents. The margin is narrow.
The Candidates Facing Him
Kreiss-Tomkins has built his campaign around listening. In July, he said: “Alaskans are hungry for change,” adding, “We’ve been running the same campaign since we launched in February, and I don’t take anyone’s vote for granted.”
His rivals are less united. Wilson, the top-finishing Republican candidate, said in an emailed statement: “Alaskans are looking for fresh leadership from the private sector… Not another ‘experienced’ politician who will wreck our energy economy, raise taxes, continue to fail us on the PFD [permanent fund dividend], and sell out Alaska to advance their career.”
Wilson’s statement is notable for what it omits. She does not attack Kreiss-Tomkins by name. Instead, she attacks the idea of another career politician.
Wilson’s resume includes a win that did not hold. She chairs Bronson’s 2020 campaign for Anchorage mayor, which he won as a political newcomer before losing re-election to the independent Suzanne LaFrance in 2024.
The Ranked-Choice System
The ranked-choice voting system is new to Alaska, adopted by voters in 2020. Under it, the top four candidates from an open primary advance to the general election. That means the November ballot will feature Kreiss-Tomkins alongside the three Republicans.
Voters rank their preferences, and votes can transfer to their next-ranked candidate as lower-placed contenders are eliminated. The system rewards a candidate who can build a coalition across the state, not just within one party.
The Race Ahead
The AARP poll shows a close contest. Kreiss-Tomkins leads narrowly, but the three Republicans combined hold a slightly larger share of first-choice preferences. The general election will determine whether the Democrat can hold onto that lead.
The race is shaping up to be a test of two competing narratives. On one side is the argument that Kreiss-Tomkins represents change. On the other is the argument that the Republican nominee represents experience.
The polls show a tight contest. The collapse in Trump’s approval in Alaska has created a vacuum, and Kreiss-Tomkins has positioned himself to fill it. Whether that positioning holds remains to be seen.
What the Polls Show
The AARP poll provides the clearest evidence of where the race stands. Here is the breakdown:
- Kreiss-Tomkins: 40% of first-choice preferences
- Combined Republican total (Wilson, Bronson, Taylor): 41%
The margin is narrow.
The Road Ahead
The primary was the first test. Kreiss-Tomkins passed it. The general election will be the second, and it will be closer.
The ranked-choice system means no candidate can assume victory. Every voter’s second and third preferences matter.
The campaign has already shown what Kreiss-Tomkins is capable of. Four days on the Yukon River, visiting 11 villages, reaching into Indigenous communities like Koyukon Athabascan country, Deg Hit’an communities like Anvik, and Yup’ik villages such as Russian Mission and Pilot Station. That kind of effort builds trust.
The question now is whether that trust translates into votes. The polls suggest it does, but elections are not held in polls. They are held on November ballots, and that is where the final verdict will be rendered.
Kreiss-Tomkins has run the same campaign since February. He does not take anyone’s vote for granted. That approach has carried him to the top of the primary, and it could carry him to the governor’s seat.
Where the paper stands
The paper backs Kreiss-Tomkins’s campaign approach of reaching voters in remote Alaska rather than treating elections as a contest between two machines, and is against the political horse-race framing that ignores the collapse in Trump’s approval rating in the state. The paper’s north star is individual freedom, support for small business, and avoiding concentrations of power, in government or in business, and it judges a candidate issue by issue against those standards.
Kreiss-Tomkins has campaigned across the Yukon River, visiting 11 villages over four days and 450 miles, and he has built his campaign around listening to Alaskans rather than attacking opponents. That approach contrasts sharply with the machine-style politics the paper rejects, where two parties gather power and ignore the collapse in Trump’s approval rating.
The ranked-choice system rewards a candidate who can build a coalition across the state, not just within one party. The paper would want the conversation to stay focused on the issues that matter to Alaskans, including the permanent fund dividend and the energy economy, rather than on party labels or attacks on individuals.
Source material: “A Democratic upset is brewing in Alaska’s governor’s race as Trump’s popularity craters,” The Guardian.
Get the Notebook.
The day's best stories and every fresh verdict, in plain English, in your inbox by seven. One email a day, no more.