Xi says the U.S. and China can avoid war by overcoming the ancient Greek trap

Thursday saw Xi Jinping arrive at the White House bearing a message about history and a warning about war. The Chinese side’s official account states that Xi made his remarks during a meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump, saying “The Thucydides Trap can be overcome”.

Just weeks after Xi posed his question at the May summit about whether the two countries could avoid the Thucydides Trap entirely, he has moved on from merely avoiding it to actually beating it. The change in wording is slight, but the intent behind it is substantial: it reflects a belief that the United States and China can handle their rivalry without war, even as both nations become more powerful.

The Trap’s Origin

The Thucydides Trap was popularized by Harvard professor Graham Allison in the early 2010s. Allison is founding dean of Harvard’s Kennedy School, which trained many of China’s government officials. He previously worked in the U.S. government as Assistant Secretary of Defense under President Bill Clinton in the 1990s and Special Advisor to the Secretary of Defense under President Ronald Reagan in the 1980s.

Xi met with Allison on several occasions, and she traveled to China more than once, most recently in June 2026, when she attended a World Economic Forum event there. The trap is the observation that conflicts between a rising power and an existing dominant one have historically frequently ended in war.

The Athenian general Thucydides wrote a historical account of the Peloponnesian War, which described how Athens’ swift ascent alarmed Sparta and made conflict between the two city-states unavoidable.

Xi’s Record With the Trap

Xi has used the concept before. In a 2014 interview published by HuffPost, he said: “We all need to work together to avoid the Thucydides Trap — destructive tensions between an emerging power and established powers, or between established powers themselves.”

His state visit to the U.S. was his first in 11 years. A state media article following his 2015 visit said his interest in the Thucydides Trap reflected his view that it’s major powers’ suspicion of each other, rather than any sense of inevitability, that causes conflict.

Thursday’s Statement

On Thursday, after remarks on peaceful coexistence, Xi made a comment about overcoming the trap, noting that the U.S. and China can have “healthy” competition without confrontation.

The speaker additionally noted that the two nations share a common position against something described as “Taiwan independence.”‘ militaries should improve crisis communication and prevention. The readout from Beijing also said Xi called on the U.S. to “oppose ‘

Trump’s comments on Xi’s arrival at the White House emphasized general collaboration.

What the Summit Settled

Cui Shoujun, a professor at Renmin University of China’s School of International Studies, said the summit’s most significant political outcome was establishing a bottom line of competing intensely without military conflict. He called it “the most significant political outcome” and said it “injected certainty into the volatile bilateral relationship.”

The way a situation is described makes a difference. Both sides acknowledge that the conflict remains beneath the military threshold. What is not clear is whether either side will keep to that limit.

The Unverified Readout Problem

The whole report rests on a single reading from Beijing. Nothing exists to confirm independently what was reported. That reading states Trump made no mention of Taiwan, yet it is the Chinese reading that makes that assertion.

“The Thucydides Trap can be overcome”

That is the whole of the verified content.

What This Means for the Relationship

According to the readout, the summit’s stated goal is a move away from conflict and toward healthy competition. The success of that shift will depend entirely on whether both sides actually follow through.

This summit’s readout’s claims about what was agreed unverified. The paper’ emphasizes peaceful cooperation rather than an arms race, a position that lines up with the stated outcome. The U.S., however, has declined to comment on Taiwan, leaving the readout’s principles unchallenged while keeping the mood guarded due to the unverified readout and the silence on Taiwan.

A trap still serves as a valuable caution. Xi’s readiness to claim it can be overcome points to self-assurance, though it offers no assurance.

Where the paper stands

The paper backs keeping the channels open for trade, diplomacy and compromise with China and is against foreign entanglements and trade wars. The paper wants both nations to keep the door open for peaceful cooperation rather than an arms race, a position that lines up with the stated summit goal of moving away from conflict and toward healthy competition.

The summit’s readout rests on a single unverified account from Beijing, and the exact content of the meeting remains unverified. The paper’s approach is to keep the channels open for trade, diplomacy and compromise, and it is skeptical of foreign entanglements and trade wars alike.

Readers should watch for any moves that close those channels, whether in trade, diplomacy or rhetoric. The paper will continue to weigh actions against intentions, trusting neither fully but keeping the door open until proven otherwise.

Source material: “Why Xi believes the U.S. and China can overcome the 'Thucydides Trap',” CNBC.

China-US relations · diplomacy · Donald Trump · Thucydides Trap · Xi Jinping